Black Box Racing 1 Friday 3rd April 2026 (1)

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FRIDAY 3rd APRIL 2026



FILTER BETS



H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

PARIS BABE 2.25 Newcastle

TYRRHENIAN SEA 3.00 Newcastle

EL BODON 3.35 Newcastle

DUKE OF OXFORD 4.42 Newcastle



H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

BERKSHIRE WHISPER 3.35 Newcastle

REGAL ULIXES 4.10 Newcastle



HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

N/A



I've also added two filters to the trialling stage:


YELLOW + SCORE 1 = 5/6 AND SCORE 2 = 10/11/12

I've put the horses shortlisted below, but this filter really works off value and if price dictates ew betting, so will mark that with a V at the front for value and EW if that is ew value:

FAIYUM 3.07 Curragh



CONDITIONS RACES + YELLOW + COURSE WIN

Again works off value and ew betting if price dictates, so will include all shortlisted on strict criteria but denote value with a V at the front and EW if ew option:

N/A





******************


H'CAP TOP-RATED

1.50 Newcastle - ONE AND GONE

2.25 Newcastle - PARIS BABE

3.00 Newcastle - TYRRHENIAN SEA

3.35 Newcastle - EL BODON and LAKERS

4.10 Newcastle - BRASIL POWER

4.17 Curragh - RIBEE

4.42 Newcastle - DUKE OF OXFORD

TPC San Antonio (The Oaks Course) | April 2-5

The PGA Tour’s penultimate stop before Augusta rolls into San Antonio for the 104th edition of the Valero Texas Open, and with the Masters looming large next week, this field carries genuine star quality for what is nominally a non-signature event. Tommy Fleetwood headlines as the world number four, but following Collin Morikawa’s withdrawal with a back injury, the door is wide open for a player who has been knocking on it all season.

TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course is a 7,438-yard par-72 designed by Greg Norman and Sergio Garcia, threading through the Hill Country’s narrow corridors of cedar, oak and cactus. Don’t be fooled by the yardage — this is not a bombers’ paradise. Raw distance off the tee is one of the least correlated stats with success here. What wins at TPC San Antonio is precision: fairway-finding, elite iron play into elevated, contoured Bermuda greens, and the bogey avoidance to grind through whatever the Texas wind throws at you. Since 2015, every winner bar J.J. Spaun in 2022 has finished inside the top ten for strokes gained ball striking. Seven of the last ten champions have ranked inside the top five in that category for the week. That is not a coincidence — it is a blueprint.

The scoring window is also wider than almost anywhere on tour. Akshay Bhatia and Denny McCarthy shared the course record at 20-under in 2024, yet Brian Harman won at just nine-under last year, closing with a three-over 75 in brutal northerly winds. This place bends to the conditions and demands adaptability above all else.

The Main Bet: Sepp Straka Top 10 — 11-4

Austrian Sepp Straka enters this week as arguably the most compelling course fit in the entire field, and at 11-4 for a top ten, there is genuine value on offer. The 32-year-old has been playing some of the most controlled, consistent golf on tour in 2026 and the metrics point directly at TPC San Antonio as a venue built for his game.

The key number is this: Straka has gained strokes on approach in all six of his starts this season, exceeding 2.1 strokes gained in the approach category in five of those six events. He ranks third in the field for strokes gained tee-to-green over the past 18 months in conditions comparable to TPC San Antonio, and sits inside the top ten overall in strokes gained tee-to-green across 2026. This is a second-shot course above all else. The premium is on hitting fairways and attacking greens from positions that allow you to score — and Straka does both with a consistency that most of his rivals this week simply cannot match.

His Valero Texas Open record tells a story of steady progression too. He has improved his finish in each of his three starts here, and has four top-20 finishes in his last five starts overall this season, including a tied runner-up at Pebble Beach and a T8 at The Players Championship last week. He arrived in San Antonio off the back of his best stretch of form in years.

The one note of caution analysts consistently raise is the tendency for one poor round to derail what might otherwise be a winning week — something that has cost him at Phoenix, at Sawgrass and at Bay Hill this season. In a top-ten bet, however, that concern is substantially mitigated. He does not need to maintain four rounds of excellence — he simply needs to be in the conversation by Sunday, and his floor at this venue and in this form is high enough to make 11-4 look like a fair price for placement rather than a stretch.

The Honda Classic in 2022 was the first indication that Straka had the game for tight, demanding, approach-play-heavy layouts. That win at PGA National was built on the same foundations that TPC San Antonio rewards. The Truist Championship victory in 2025 at Philadelphia Cricket Club confirmed he can produce under pressure in signature-level company. Now, armed with arguably the best ball-striking form of his career and an improving record at this very venue, this feels like a week where the ingredients have come together.

The Verdict

This is a tournament that tends to produce results anchored in ball-striking excellence and wind-game durability. Straka has both in abundance right now, and the market has been slow to fully price in just how sharply he has been playing in 2026. The top-ten at 11-4 is the main play — structured, well-reasoned and grounded in the data — with the outright point at 25-1 offering legitimate upside if everything clicks across four rounds.

Bets:

4 points win SEPP STRAKA Top 10 »> 11-4 generally

1 point win SEPP STRAKA Oturight »> 25-1 generally

The Cheltenham View was a massive and profitable success, now I've set my sights on The Flat View which will specialise in all the major flat races looked at from a antepost point of view. There'll be a massive emphasis on the big Group 1s, but will also have the usual weekly review and eyecactchers, plus pedigree analysis and a new idea called 'Routes to...' which will look to plot certain horse's routes to their targets. As usual, it has nothing to do with the ratings and completely done through eyes and knowledge.

This service runs from today until the Breeders Cup weekend and is just a one-off £19.95 for the whole season.

Tonight I’ll be posting my 2000 Guineas antepost opinion, plus I’ll be highlighting two massive eyecatchers from this week’s racing.

Click the link below and I'll add you to the channel:

https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/CMGGF25DWCBK4

Black Box Racing 1 Sunday 29th March 2026

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FILTER BETS



H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

MACSHADOW DE CRAI 3.05 Ascot

SIXTYGEESBABY 5.15 Doncaster

H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

MACSHADOW DE CRAI 3.05 Ascot
SENATOR 3.05 Ascot

PORT OF LONDON 4.05 Doncaster
SPOKEN TRUTH 4.05 Doncaster

SIXTYGEESBABY 5.15 Doncaster



HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

SIXTYGEESBABY 5.15 Doncaster



I've also added two filters to the trialling stage:

YELLOW + SCORE 1 = 5/6 AND SCORE 2 = 10/11/12

I've put the horses shortlisted below, but this filter really works off value and if price dictates ew betting, so will mark that with a V at the front for value and EW if that is ew value:

N/A

CONDITIONS RACES + YELLOW + COURSE WIN

Again works off value and ew betting if price dictates, so will include all shortlisted on strict criteria but denote value with a V at the front and EW if ew option:

N/A



********


H'CAP TOP-RATED

3.05 Ascot - MACSHADOW DE CRAI

4.05 Doncaster - ATHERSTONE WARRIOR

5.15 Doncaster - SIXTYGEESBABY

Black Box Racing 1 Saturday 28th March 2026

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FILTER BETS



H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

BELGRAVIAN 2.08 Kempton

RESPOND 2.42 Kempton


H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

BELGRAVIAN 2.08 Kempton

MEZCALA 2.25 Doncaster

ETERNAL FORCE 3.32 Doncaster


HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

RESPOND 2.42 Kempton

ETERNAL FORCE 3.32 Doncaster



I've also added two filters to the trialling stage:

YELLOW + SCORE 1 = 5/6 AND SCORE 2 = 10/11/12

I've put the horses shortlisted below, but this filter really works off value and if price dictates ew betting, so will mark that with a V at the front for value and EW if that is ew value:

ALBERT EINSTEIN 3.05 Curragh
V) EW) NEOLITHIC 3.05 Curragh

CONDITIONS RACES + YELLOW + COURSE WIN

Again works off value and ew betting if price dictates, so will include all shortlisted on strict criteria but denote value with a V at the front and EW if ew option:

ALBERT EINSTEIN 3.05 Curragh
V) EW) RAHMI 3.05 Curragh

V) EW) AMERICAN GAL 3.13 Kempton
V) GLITTERING SURF 3.13 Kempton

KINGS TRAIL 4.28 Kempton

************


H'CAP TOP-RATED

2.08 Kempton - BELGRAVIAN

2.25 Doncaster - LIR SPECIALE

2.42 Kempton - RESPOND

3.32 Doncaster - LA TRINIDAD

Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston | Par 70 | 7,432 yards

Memorial Park is not a course that suffers fools. Stretching beyond 7,400 yards on a par 70, it demands elite ball-striking week in, week out, and its Bermudagrass surfaces reward those who can control their irons and get up and down when the narrow tree-lined fairways inevitably exact their toll. The winner here tends to grind — this is not a birdie-fest. It is a course that finds out weaknesses and exposes them over 72 holes.

The market this week will gravitate towards the world number one and the usual suspects at short prices. The smarter money sits three names lower down the board, all of whom carry the right profile, the right recent form, and the right course credentials.

Sam Burns — 20-1 (Ladbrokes, 10 places, 1/5 odds)

Burns is 29 years old, has five PGA Tour wins, and has not yet won in 2026. That profile sits squarely within the historical winner’s template for this event — precisely the age bracket, wins tally and seasonal status that has produced champions here in recent years.

The form case rests on his fourth-place finish at Pebble Beach, where he was briefly in the lead before Morikawa’s closing birdie edged him out. That performance confirmed his game is in solid shape — his driving was accurate, his iron play was crisp, and he gave himself birdie looks consistently on a course that demands the same controlled, fairway-first approach Memorial Park requires.

Burns has always been a strong fit here. His accuracy off the tee is one of the better profiles in this field for a par 70 that punishes wayward misses more aggressively than almost anywhere on Tour. His Bermuda putting has never been his strongest suit but it has improved measurably in recent seasons, and on a layout where par is a valuable score, his bogey-avoidance numbers give him a structural edge over the weekend.

At 20-1 with ten places paid at a fifth of the odds, the each-way case is compelling. He arrives with momentum, fits the course profile, and is priced generously enough for a player of his calibre and relevant form.

Wyndham Clark — 30-1 (Ladbrokes, 10 places, 1/5 odds)

Clark is 31 years old with two PGA Tour wins, including the 2023 US Open at Los Angeles Country Club — a lengthy, demanding layout that asked similar questions to Memorial Park in terms of precision and patience. He has not won in 2026, which again matches the profile of recent Houston champions who have typically been chasing rather than defending momentum.

The course fit here is arguably better than his odds suggest. Memorial Park at 7,432 yards on a par 70 plays into Clark’s hands — he is one of the longer hitters in the field, which on a course of this length gives him considerably shorter approaches into greens than shorter hitters, and his iron play when on song is comfortably top-25 on Tour. His ability to hit into par fours from mid-iron distances rather than long irons is a significant advantage over 72 holes on a layout where the closing stretch is as demanding as anywhere the Tour visits.

His 2026 season has been one of gradual improvement rather than fireworks — consistent missed cuts have given way to more solid mid-table results, and the signs of his game returning to the level that made him a US Open champion are visible. A course this well suited to his profile could be the catalyst.

At 30-1 with ten places paid at a fifth of the odds, the each-way return offers excellent value for a player whose US Open pedigree and ball-striking profile make him one of the most logical course fits in the field.

Harris English — 30-1 (Ladbrokes, 10 places, 1/5 odds)

English is the each-way banker of the week. Six consecutive top-28 finishes to open his 2026 season tell the story of a player who has rediscovered a level of consistency that his injury-affected recent seasons had threatened to obscure. He is 36 years old with five PGA Tour wins and has not won in 2026 — matching the profile of Jason Kokrak, who was 36 when he won at Memorial Park in 2021 almost identically.

The course record is the clincher. English has finished inside the top ten at Memorial Park on multiple occasions, and his approach play profile — one of the most accurate in the field from the 150-200 yard range — maps directly onto what Bermudagrass Memorial Park demands week after week. His scrambling is also elite, which matters enormously on a course where even the best ball-strikers will miss greens and need to recover.

The knock on English in recent years has been his putting. That is a fair observation, but the Bermudagrass surfaces at Memorial Park are among the most receptive to his putting stroke on Tour, and his results here have consistently outperformed his overall seasonal putting numbers — suggesting there is something specific about this course that suits him at a fundamental level.

Six starts, six cuts made, a consistent scoring average and arriving into a course where he has demonstrated a genuine affinity. At 30-1, ten places paid at a fifth of the odds, this is outstanding each-way value.

Bets

1 point ew SAM BURNS »> 20-1 Ladbrokes 1/5 odds 10 places

0.5 point ew WYNDHAM CLARK »> 30-1 Ladbrokes 1/5 odds 10 places

0.5 point ew HARRIS ENGLISH »> 30-1 Ladbrokes 1/5 odds 10 places

Black Box Racing 1 Saturday 21st March 2026

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FILTER BETS



H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

CHARISMA CAT 3.00 Newbury

FARENHEIT SEVEN 4.28 Southwell

H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

FRESH AS A DAISY 3.00…

Read more

Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead Course | Par 71 | 7,340 yards

The Copperhead Course has a habit of producing winners that the market underestimates. Four of the last five champions arrived at Innisbrook without a win that season. Three of those five had six or fewer career victories to their name. Taylor Moore won here as a first-time champion. Peter Malnati hadn’t won in nine years. Viktor Hovland claimed the title last year having missed the cut at Bay Hill seven days earlier. The pattern is consistent — Copperhead does not bow to reputation. It rewards precision, patience, and the ability to keep the ball between the trees on one of the tightest, most unforgiving layouts the PGA Tour visits all year.

This week, two players fit that template almost perfectly.

Main Pick: Sahith Theegala »> 28-1 (Ladbrokes, 10 places, 1/5 odds)

Theegala is 28 years old with one PGA Tour win, has not won in 2026, and arrives at Innisbrook with his game visibly building week on week. That profile matches the Valspar winner’s template from the last five years as closely as any player in the field.

The course form confirms the thesis. His T7 at Copperhead in 2022 at 12-under showed the ceiling is genuine — he handled the tight Bermudagrass fairways and penalising rough without flinching, ranking inside the top ten in approach play that week. The 2025 showing was a setback, but that was a season disrupted by injury and a confidence wobble that has clearly been addressed. In 2026 he has made every cut, posted two top tens, and his approach play at the Genesis Invitational — two weekend rounds of 68 and 67 — confirmed the irons are as sharp as they have ever been.

Copperhead rewards exactly what Theegala does well. One third of all approaches here come from 175 yards or beyond, placing an enormous premium on long iron control and flight into firm, fast greens. Theegala’s ball-striking off the tee is accurate enough to find the fairway consistently on a course with very little margin, and his scrambling numbers this season rank inside the top 30 on Tour — essential on a layout where missed greens are punished heavily. His Bermuda putting has also improved markedly, ranking inside the top 30 in the field on the relevant surface split.

At 28-1 with ten places paid at a fifth of the odds, this is the standout each-way bet of the week. The places alone represent strong value at a course where he has already shown he belongs in the top ten.

Each-Way Value: Christiaan Bezuidenhout »> 55-1 (Ladbrokes, 10 places, 1/5 odds)

At 55-1 Bezuidenhout represents the most compelling longshot on the board this week, built on a course profile that fits Innisbrook almost hand in glove.

The South African is 27 years old, has three PGA Tour wins to his name, and has not won in 2026 — ticking every box of the historical winner’s profile identified across the last five Valspar champions. His T9 here in 2024 is the foundation of the case, but the detail behind that result matters more than the headline number. He ranked inside the top three in the field in approach play that week — on a course where approach play is the single biggest differentiator — and did so without any standout putting performance. If his putting is even average, the ceiling moves considerably higher than ninth.

Bezuidenhout’s game is built on precision. He is one of the most accurate drivers in the field, which on a course where the rough is so penal that even slight misses can result in bogey or worse, is a structural advantage that compounds over 72 holes. His approach play accuracy on courses with tight target zones is consistently elite, and Copperhead’s demand for correct angle into greens from the fairway plays directly to his strengths.

The knock on him has always been an inconsistent putter, particularly on Bermuda. That concern is real but mitigated here — the overseeded Poa trivialis surfaces at Innisbrook are closer to the Bent grass Bezuidenhout grew up playing in South Africa than standard Bermuda, and his putting numbers on this specific surface variant rank inside the top 25 in the field. The biggest weakness in his game is arguably neutralised this week.

At 55-1, ten places paid at a fifth of the odds, Bezuidenhout offers genuine win potential alongside a very attractive each-way return. The course fit is excellent, the profile matches, and the price significantly underestimates his chances of challenging come Sunday.

Bets

1 point ew SAHITH THEEGALA »>28-1 Ladbrokes 10 places, 1/5 odds

1 point ew CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT »> 55-1 Ladbrokes 10 places, 1/5 odds

Black Box Racing 1 Saturday 14th March 2026 (1)

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FILTER BETS



H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

TWIG 2.25 Uttoxeter

NORTH LODGE 2.40 Kempton
ROYAL INFANTRY 2.40 Kempton

CALIFET EN VOL 3.18 Kempton


H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

JUST GOLDEN 2.25 Uttoxeter
A PAI DE NOM 2.25 Uttoxeter

LA PINSONNIERE 2.40 Kempton

DEFEANING SILENCE 3.00 Kempton

CALIFET EN VOL 3.18 Kempton

AS THE FELLA SAYS 3.35 Uttoxeter


HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

JUST GOLDEN 2.25 Uttoxeter

LA PINSONNIERE 2.40 Kempton
ROYAL INFANTRY 2.40 Kempton

CALIFET EN VOL 3.18 Kempton


****************


H'CAP TOP-RATED

2.25 Uttoxeter - TWIG

2.40 Kempton - ROYAL INFANTRY and NORTH LODGE

3.00 Uttoxeter - J'ARRIVE DE L'EST

3.18 Kempton - CALIFET EN VOL

3.35 Uttoxeter - SAINT DAVY and AS THE FELLA SAYS

Black Box Racing 1 Friday 13th March 2026

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FILTER BETS



H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

N/A


H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

SINNATRA 2.00 Cheltenham

FIERCELY PROUD 5.20 Cheltenham
EAST INDIA EXPRESS 5.20 Cheltenham


HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

SINNATRA 2.00 Cheltenham
KARBAU 2.00 Cheltenham
ABSURDE 2.00 Cheltenham

FIERCELY PROUD 5.20 Cheltenham
EAST INDIA EXPRESS 5.20 Cheltenham


****************


H'CAP TOP-RATED

2.00 Cheltenham - CRACKING RHAPSODY and JUBILEE ALPHA

5.20 Cheltenham - SAINT LE FORT

The Course

Pete Dye’s Stadium Course is one of the most unforgiving tests in professional golf. Measuring over 7,300 yards, the par-72 layout demands elite ball-striking from the first tee to the last. The overseeded rye rough is thick and punishing, which puts a real premium on finding fairways, and missing the short grass here carries a significant penalty. The greens are small, well-protected, and water hazards are a constant companion across virtually every hole on the property. The famous island-green 17th remains the defining moment of any tournament week. In short, if you can’t find fairways and stick your irons close, you won’t be troubling the leaderboard come Sunday.

Main Pick: Collin Morikawa — 12/1 Each-Way (Ladbrokes, 1/5, 10 Places)

If there’s one player whose profile screams TPC Sawgrass, it’s Collin Morikawa. The two-time major champion is riding one of the hottest streaks on tour right now and enters the week with the wind firmly at his back.

The Season So Far

Morikawa kicked the year off in style, winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February by a single stroke, ending a winless drought of over two years and signalling that the real Morikawa was well and truly back. He followed that up with a top-seven at the Genesis Invitational and then last week posted a solo fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Three starts in a row inside the top seven on a PGA Tour that has rarely been more competitive. That kind of consistency doesn’t happen by accident.

The underlying numbers are equally compelling. He sits inside the top five on tour in strokes gained approach and top ten in strokes gained overall. His iron play has always been his calling card, but what’s striking about 2026 is the complete picture: a player who looks in control of every part of his game and who clearly understands why he’s performing well. A confident Morikawa is a very dangerous Morikawa.

The putter remains the one question mark, as it has been for much of his career. He’s not going to light up the putting stats. But there are genuine signs of improvement and he has gained strokes on the greens in each of the past two weeks. A switch to a mallet-style putter before Pebble Beach now looks like a significant turning point.

So Close at Bay Hill

Last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational deserves a closer look, because Morikawa was very much in the thick of it. Heading into the final round he was well within striking distance and produced another polished display, only for a late bogey on the 18th to cost him dearly. The tournament eventually went to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff with Daniel Berger, with margins as tight as they ever get. Had that closing bogey not materialised, Morikawa finishes the week right in the playoff mix. A tiny drop of luck goes his way and we’re talking about a man who has won two from three events this season. The talent is clearly there and it’s now just a matter of time before the results fully reflect it.

Why TPC Sawgrass Suits Him

Morikawa’s defining skill, his ability to attack flags with pinpoint iron precision, is exactly what Pete Dye’s creation demands. The tight fairways, the water everywhere, and the small guarded greens all favour the player who thinks strategically and executes clinically. That is Morikawa to a tee.

He has spoken openly about his love of the venue and his record has been trending in the right direction. Last year he was tied for the lead at the halfway stage before a third-round stumble derailed his week, showing that his ceiling here is genuine contention and not just mid-field respectability. With a full swing of confidence behind him and the best iron play on tour, a much more complete showing is well within reach.

At 12/1 with Ladbrokes paying a fifth of the odds for ten places, this is a player at the top of his game, on a course built for his strengths, with the confidence of a man who knows his best golf is back. Morikawa is the pick.

Each-Way Longshot: Jacob Bridgeman — 45/1 Each-Way (Ladbrokes, 1/5, 10 Places)

If Morikawa is the headline act, Bridgeman is the one to make the each-way returns truly special, and at 45/1 the case for him is stronger than the price might suggest.

A Season That Has Turned Heads

The 26-year-old from South Carolina has been the breakout story of 2026. He secured his first PGA Tour victory at the Genesis Invitational in February at Riviera and the manner of the win was emphatic. Building a commanding lead and holding off the best players in the world, including Rory McIlroy, is not something that happens by chance. Since then he hasn’t gone away, adding further top-ten finishes and cementing himself as a genuine top-30 player in the world.

His putting has been a particular strength throughout the season and he has been one of the most consistent performers on the greens week in week out, which is remarkable form to sustain across a full run of events. When someone is both rolling it and hitting it, they are worth serious attention.

Why He Can Go Well at Sawgrass

Bridgeman has been one of the most prolific birdie-makers on tour this season, ranking near the very top of the field in birdie-or-better percentage, behind only the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy. That’s elite company. TPC Sawgrass rewards those who can take advantage of scoring holes while keeping things tidy on the tougher stretches, and Bridgeman has demonstrated that capability week after week.

His strokes gained approach numbers over the past couple of months are also excellent, putting him in the top ten on tour in that category over recent events. A ball-striker who is also making putts, on a venue that demands both, is a fit worth backing at a big price.

His debut at the Players last year was unremarkable, but that was a different player: one without a tour win, without the world ranking, and without the self-belief that all of that brings. He arrives at TPC Sawgrass in 2026 as a transformed proposition.

The Value Case

At 45/1, Ladbrokes are effectively offering you a player who is among the top three in strokes gained on tour this season, has a tour win in the bag, and arrives at a ball-striking venue in the form of his life. Ten places at a fifth of the odds means the each-way return is substantial if he posts anything competitive on Sunday. This is the kind of price that looks very short by Friday afternoon.

Bets

2 points ew COLIN MORIKAWA »> 12-1 Ladbrokes 1/5 odds 10 places

1 point ew JACOB BRIDGEMAN »> 45-1 Ladbrokes 1/5 odds 10 places

Black Box Racing 1 Thursday 12th March 2026

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H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

GERICAULT ROQUE 5.20 Cheltenham

H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

EXCELLO 5.20 Cheltenham

HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

N/A


********************


H'CAP TOP-RATED

2.00 Cheltenham - JORDAN'S CROSS

4.40 Cheltenham - ELECTRIC MASON

5.20 Cheltenham - GERICAULT ROQUE

Black Box Racing 1 Wednesday 11th March 2026

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»> H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

VANDERPOEL 4.40 Cheltenham

»> H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

IBERICO LORD 2.40 Cheltenham
LUCKY PLACE 2.40 Cheltenham

VANDERPOEL 4.40 Cheltenham
BE AWARE 4.40 Cheltenham
PERSONAL AMBITION 4.40 Cheltenham


»> HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

IBERICO LORD 2.40 Cheltenham
LUCKY PLACE 2.40 Cheltenham

VANDERPOEL 4.40 Cheltenham
BE AWARE 4.40 Cheltenham
PERSONAL AMBITION 4.40 Cheltenham


*****


H'CAP TOP-RATED

2.40 Cheltenham - BECKETT ROCK

3.20 Cheltenham - FAVORI DU CHAMPDOU

4.40 Cheltenham - VANDERPOEL

Black Box Racing 1 Tuesday 10th March 2026 (1)

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H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

JAGWAR 3.20 Cheltenham

NO QUESTIONS ASKED 4.40 Cheltenham

H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

MANLAGA 2.40 Cheltenham
MUSTANG DU BREUIL 2.40 Cheltenham
AMMES 2.40 Cheltenham

HYLAND 3.20 Cheltenham
MYRETOWN 3.20 Cheltenham

BACKERSMEBACK 5.20 Cheltenham

HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

JAGWAR 3.20 Cheltenham
HYLAND 3.20 Cheltenham
MYRETOWN 3.20 Cheltenham


*********


H'CAP TOP-RATED

2.40 Cheltenham - OLE OLE

3.20 Cheltenham - JAGWAR

4.40 Cheltenham - NO QUESTIONS ASKED

5.20 Cheltenham - NEWTON TORNADO

Black Box Racing 1 Sunday 8th March 2026

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H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

GORAIBHMAITHAGAT 4.02 Naas

H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

N/A

HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

GORAIBHMAITHAGAT 4.02 Naas


*********


H'CAP TOP-RATED

4.02 Naas - GORAIBHMAITHAGAT

Black Box Racing 1 Saturday 7th March 2026

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H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

RACE TO BASE 1.50 Sandown

RUBBER BALL 2.27 Sandown

H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

REGAL ULIXES 2.42 Wolverhampton
THE LOST KING 2.42 Wolverhampton

Am also adding Handicap + Score 2 = 8+ to the Filter Bets now:

HANDICAPS + SCORE 2 = 8+

REGAL ULIXES 2.42 Wolverhampton
THE LOST KING 2.42 Wolverhampton
KINGDOM COME 2.42 Wolverhampton
SUPERPOSITION 2.42 Wolverhampton

CINQUENTA 1.50 Sandown



*************


H'CAP TOP-RATED

1.50 Sandown - RACE TO BASE

2.27 Sandown - RUBBER BALL

2.42 Wolverhampton - TWO TEMPTING, SUPERPOSITION and HIGH ON HOPE

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Scheffler and McIlroy will take the beating of the market this week as they always do. The world number one and the reigning Masters champion will absorb the money and the attention at miserly prices. The smarter play sits just below the radar — two players who fit the historical winner’s profile almost perfectly, carry elite course form, and arrive with their games in excellent condition.

Collin Morikawa

A two-time Major champion with seven PGA Tour wins, Morikawa spent much of the last two years frustrating his backers. Not anymore. He arrived at Pebble Beach in February and birdied the 72nd hole to win the AT&T Pro-Am by a single shot, snapping a 28-month winless drought in the most clinical fashion possible. This is vintage Morikawa — the player who wins majors on debut and closes from the front when it matters most.

The Bay Hill record is nuanced but ultimately compelling. Back-to-back missed cuts in 2023 and 2024 are the blemish, but the context matters — those were two difficult seasons across the board for him. The 2025 edition told the real story: he led the field by three shots with five holes to play before Henley’s eagle at the 18th wrenched the title away. His approach play that week was elite, and he arrives in 2026 playing to an almost identical standard. Unfinished business at Bay Hill is a significant motivating factor for a player of his competitive temperament.

Critically, he fits the historical winner’s template almost to the letter — right age bracket, seven career wins, arrived with a win at his previous start, and a runner-up finish at this venue last year.

Sahith Theegala

The hidden gem of the week. At 28 years old with one PGA Tour win to his name, Theegala matches the profile of Kurt Kitayama — the 2023 API champion — almost precisely. Six starts in 2026 have produced two top tens and a further pair of top-25 finishes, the picture of quiet, building consistency. His putting on Bermuda greens ranks inside the top 30 on Tour this season, which is critical on Bay Hill’s TifEagle surfaces running at 12 feet, and his approach play at the Genesis in his most recent start was elite — two rounds of 68 and 67 at the weekend showing the game is sharp.

The course record is the clincher. Before an injury-affected 2025 campaign disrupted his momentum, Theegala finished T14 at Bay Hill in 2023 and T6 in 2024 — two of the better results in the field among players at his price level. He consistently elevates his performance on penalising, demanding layouts where accuracy off the tee is rewarded and wayward misses are severely punished. Bay Hill fits that description perfectly.

Bets

1 point ew COLIN MORIKAWA, Outright »> 22-1 generally 5 places 1/4 odds

0.5 point ew SAHITH THEEGALA, Outright »> 100-1 generally 5 places 1/4 odds

4 points win SAHITH THEEGALA, Top 20 Finish »> 9-4 generally

Antepost action is heating up in the channel, 100-1 shot posted yesterday.

This next week is all about taking advantage of NRNB markets to grab the value.

This is separate from the ratings, based purely on the eye and race reviews. You can go back through every weekend's racing to see what I've highlighted, not just for Cheltenham but for things like Scottish National etc.

You can see our Portfolio of bets including two cracking multibets and members will also be getting the Red and Green form assessment PDFs for every race bar the Hunter Chase.

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Black Box Racing 1 Saturday 28th February 2026 (1)

123KB ∙ PDF file

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FILTER BETS



H'CAPS + TOP RATED + TIF+

MIGHTY BANDIT 1.55 Doncaster

JUBILANT 2.30 Doncaster

DEDICATED HERO 2.55 Kelso



H'CAPS + TIF+ + TOP SCORE 1 AND 2 + TRENDS + A/B/WY

…

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