Black Box Golf: 2025 US Open @ Oakmount
Venue: Oakmont Country Club
Key Stats: Driving Accuracy | Fairways Hit | Bunker Avoidance
The US Open heads back to the beast of Oakmont Country Club, one of the sternest tests in major championship golf. With over 210 bunkers, ultra-narrow fairways, penal rough, and slick, undulating greens, Oakmont demands absolute control off the tee and precision into the greens. It’s a week where finding fairways and avoiding disaster will be more valuable than raw power.
With that in mind, the portfolio focuses on players whose accuracy and course management give them a legitimate chance to outperform their odds.
🎯 1pt Each Way – Russell Henley @ 50/1 (Bet365, 8 places)
This could be Russell Henley’s best shot yet to break through in a major.
✅ 1st in Driving Accuracy (PGA Tour 2025) — 73.5% fairways hit
✅ 2nd in Total Fairways Hit this season
✅ Top-10 in Strokes Gained: Approach (elite iron player)
✅ Calm, steady temperament perfectly suited for a mental test like Oakmont
Henley’s lack of elite length is irrelevant this week — Oakmont neutralizes bombers and rewards those who play from the fairway. With over 210 bunkers lurking, Henley’s ability to keep it in play is pure gold. His short game and putting have also steadily improved over the last 18 months.
At 50/1 with 8 places, Henley looks primed to turn ball-striking consistency into a career-defining win.
🎯 0.5pt Each Way – Robert MacIntyre @ 80/1 (Bet365, 8 places)
MacIntyre enters with growing confidence and quietly strong major pedigree.
✅ Recent PGA Tour winner (Canadian Open 2024)
✅ Excellent recent driving accuracy — 78% fairways in one recent PGA round
✅ Multiple Open Championship Top-10s
✅ Shot-shaping, low ball-flight game that suits firm, fast conditions
While not many have him on their radar, MacIntyre’s control off the tee, imagination around the greens, and growing major confidence could combine perfectly here. If Oakmont becomes a survival contest — as it often does — the Scotsman’s links mentality will serve him well.
At 80/1 (8 places), he’s an excellent each-way value in a tournament where patience and control will decide everything.
🎯 0.5pt Each Way – Aaron Rai @ 90/1 (Bet365, 8 places)
Quite simply, the most accurate driver in the entire field.
✅ 1st in Driving Accuracy – PGA Tour (73.4% fairways hit)
✅ 1st in Good Drive Percentage (87.5%)
✅ Leads Tour in total fairways hit this season
✅ Consistent iron play to complement his tee-game control
Oakmont’s 210 bunkers are designed to punish even marginal misses. Rai’s game is built around avoiding those mistakes entirely. While he lacks major championship experience, his statistical profile screams "Oakmont specialist" — steady, strategic, and accurate.
If the fairways are running firm and fast (as expected), Rai’s laser-like tee game will keep him in position all week. At 90/1 with 8 places, he’s one of the best ‘profile picks’ in the entire market.
🧾 The Final Bet Slip
1 point ew Russell Henley »> 50-1 Bet365 (8 places)
0.5 point ew Robert MacIntyre »> 80-1 Bet365 (8 places)
0.5 point ew Aaron Rai »> 90-1 Bet365 (8 places)