Black Box Golf: Open Championship 2025
Four selections for this year’s Open Championship.
The 2025 Open Championship returns to Royal Portrush, a venue that demands control, imagination, and resilience. With weather expected to play a role and links conditions favouring certain ball flights and temperaments, four players stand out from a betting perspective.
🏆 Jon Rahm – Main Bet
Rahm heads to Portrush in search of the Claret Jug to complete a career Grand Slam. His Open record is excellent, with finishes of 3rd, T2, and 7th in the past four years. His form in 2025 has been rock-solid, including top-15 finishes in all three majors.
Statistically, he ranks among the best off the tee, averaging over 313 yards and gaining more than a stroke per round in strokes gained: off-the-tee. That powerful and reliable driving is a huge asset on a course like Portrush, where position off the tee opens up scoring angles.
Rahm combines power with touch, and he’s shown the ability to flight the ball low when conditions demand it. The only thing missing from his CV is a Claret Jug—and this could be the year he fills the gap.
🎯 Russell Henley
Henley is quietly having one of the most consistent seasons on tour. He sits in the top five on the PGA Tour money list and already has a marquee win under his belt this year. He’s a metronome with the driver—hugely accurate off the tee and a smart course manager.
He recorded his best Open finish last year with a fifth-place at Royal Troon, and his game suits links conditions. While not the longest off the tee, his trajectory, tempo, and shot shaping lend themselves to windy, firm setups.
With confidence high and form peaking at the right time, Henley is a great each-way shout or top-20 play.
🔄 Jordan Spieth
A past Open champion with multiple top-10 finishes in this championship, Spieth knows what’s required on links land. His 2017 win at Royal Birkdale showed off his creativity and mental toughness—qualities that still define his game.
Though not the longest hitter, Spieth remains elite in strokes gained around the green and putting—vital when approaches miss their target on uneven links terrain. His driving has improved in recent months, and while he won’t overpower Portrush, he can certainly outthink it.
If his putter heats up, Spieth has the temperament and experience to contend again.
⛳ Daniel Berger
Berger’s return to form in 2025 has gone under the radar. After an injury layoff, he’s posted a string of top-10 finishes and looks close to his best. His Open record is limited but includes a T8 finish at Royal St George’s in 2021.
What makes him such a compelling outsider this week is his ball flight—Berger averages one of the lowest apex heights on tour, just 81 feet. In windy conditions, that’s a huge advantage. He’s also among the most accurate drivers on tour, regularly finding fairways while others chase distance.
Berger's control, grit, and confidence make him a live danger at a big price.
Suggested Bets
1.5 points ew JOHN RAHM »> 11-1 Bet365 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 places
0.5 point ew RUSSELL HENLEY »> 60-1 Bet365 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 places
0.5 point ew JORDAN SPIETH »> 60-1 Bet365 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 places
0.5 point ew DANIEL BERGER »> 125-1 Bet365 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 places