Black Box Golf: Phoenix Open 2026
Slow start to our golf bets this year, but we wen’t so close to a very nice payout from places only last week. And although we had nothing on the winner Justin Rose, we were on him earlier in the first tournament with the view that he’s constantly overpriced. On to this week.
TPC Scottsdale stages the loudest week of the PGA Tour season. The Phoenix Open is never subtle. Low scores are required, but this course still rewards control, patience, and strong ball striking. If you arrive here trending the right way, it often shows quickly.
Two players fit that pattern this week. TONY FINAU and MAVERICK MCNEALY.
We were with both men last week at the Farmers Insurance Open, and while neither lifted the trophy, the performances mattered. They played like golfers moving towards form, not away from it. Torrey Pines is a brutal test. If you look comfortable there, you usually bring something useful to Scottsdale.
Tony Finau is the headline play again.
At Torrey Pines last week, Finau showed exactly what you want to see. Driving numbers were strong. Ball striking held up on a long, demanding layout. He stayed patient and avoided the blow up rounds that ruin chances on tough courses. That is often the clearest signal that a player is close.
TPC Scottsdale suits him in a different way. It is still a par 72, but far more scoreable. Finau’s length becomes an advantage rather than just a survival tool. The par fives are there to be attacked. The rough is penal, but not as punishing as Torrey. If he drives it as well as he did last week, he will give himself far more birdie looks.
He has the experience to handle the atmosphere and the physical profile to dominate this layout. At 80-1 each way, generally 6 places, the price still underestimates his ceiling. Last week suggested his game is warming up. This week gives him more room to capitalise.
Maverick McNealy makes sense again as the saver.
At the Farmers, McNealy looked sharp in the areas that tend to travel well week to week. His putting held up on Poa Annua greens. His scrambling kept rounds alive when scoring was hard. That combination often carries forward, especially when the next course is more forgiving.
Scottsdale allows McNealy to lean into his strengths. He does not need to overpower the course. He needs to stay clean, hole putts, and pick his spots. If the leaders stumble or the wind gets involved, he is the type who keeps climbing without forcing anything.
Backing him again at around 35-1 each way, generally 6 places, makes sense. Last week looked like preparation rather than peak. This week offers a better scoring environment.
The key angle is momentum, not results.
Torrey Pines does not flatter players. If you look comfortable there, your game is usually close. Finau and McNealy both came through last week playing controlled, purposeful golf. That is often the final step before a proper run.
The strategy stays the same.
Tony Finau gives you upside at a big price. Maverick McNealy gives you protection and consistency. Both arrive off a week that hinted at form rather than fatigue.
0.5 point ew MAVERICK MCNEALY »> 35-1 generally 1/4 odds 6 places
0.5 point ew TONY FINAU »> 80-1 generally 1/4 odds 6 places