Black Box Racing: Cambridgeshire Antepost

With rain across Thursday and Friday, I’m banking on the ground being on the softer side of good, potentially even soft come race time.

Understanding the likely ground changes this race a lot. 1m1f on g/s or soft given the nature of the race - strong pace and big field, will mean stamina will be at a premium. Those horses stepping up from 1m will find things really tough. So I want to be with a horse stepping down from at least 1m2f with form on softer ground. The added factors of having shown a touch of class and progressive/open to improvement are a given.

With that in mind, the 33-1 about PONIROS from the Ralph Beckett stable looks bloody huge! He ran a blinder over 1m4f on soft ground last time at Ascot, where a good winner had too much stamina for him over the trip. The way he’s travelled in his races suggests a step back down in trip on softer ground will be ideal. Lets not forget he’s got form with the likes of King’s Gambit.

Another positive is the stable form. Beckett is currently running at a 34% strike rate with 12 winners from 35 runners in the last 14 days, which is a phenomenal rate for a stable which has a many runners as they do.

On the downside he’s currently number 44 on the list so needs a few to come out, but the rain might mean that’s a natural byproduct. If he gets balloted out we get our money back, but if he gets in then this horse will start 12-1 or shorter.

33-1 is available in four places and definitely worth a bet.